What Will The Weather In Melbourne Be Like On Christmas Day 2025?

If you’re trying to plan the perfect Melbourne Christmas (whether that’s a beach brekkie at St Kilda, a backyard BBQ that won’t get blown over, or a long lunch that may or may not get photobombed by a southerly), you’re in the right place. Melbourne’s festive forecast is famously unpredictable (yes, even by Melbourne standards), but early signals are already giving us a sneaky glimpse at what December 25, 2025 might look like.

Melbourne’s Christmas Day Weather: The Early Forecast

Early long-range outlooks from BOM Victoria and WeatherZone suggest a very Melbourne Christmas: warm to hot conditions through the morning, followed by the chance of a sharp afternoon cool change pushing up from Bass Strait. Scattered showers or a storm cell are also possible if humid northerlies meet an incoming front. Basically, the "four seasons in a day" cliche is alive and well.

Christmas morning may feel like peak Aussie summer, while by 4pm the breeze could flip everything on its head. Melbourne loves drama, and Christmas is no exception.

What Past Years Tell Us

Historically, Melbourne’s Christmas Day max lands around 24–27°C, but the swings are notorious. Some years have soared to 36–38°C, while others have barely passed 18–20°C, complete with drizzle and windbreakers at the family BBQ.

Late-afternoon southerlies are a common player, and they can tank temps by 10 degrees in an hour. If a low-pressure trough passes, thunderstorms are also on the cards. And don’t be fooled by cooler temps, UV levels stay extreme, even when it’s cloudy. Coastal suburbs like St Kilda, Brighton and Elwood usually feel cooler with stronger southerlies, while northern suburbs tend to hold the heat longer.

Image credit: Visit Melbourne | Website

How To Plan Your Christmas (With Melbourne’s Weather In Mind)

Your best window for anything outdoors (beach swims, brunch in the backyard, present unwrapping in the sun) is morning to early afternoon, before any southerly change decides to gate-crash. If you're hosting, flexible setups are your friend: shade and water if it’s hot, umbrellas and indoor backup options if showers threaten.

Heading to the coast? Expect breezier, cooler conditions, especially later in the day. Sticking inland? Keep an eye on live weather updates because Melbourne’s microclimates love a surprise plot twist. When in doubt, plan for versatility: picnic baskets packed for every scenario, layered outfits, and a sense of humour.

Your Melbourne Christmas Day Cheat Sheet

Will it be outdoor-friendly?
Probably in the morning. The afternoon is a wildcard.

If It’s Hot:

• Hit the beach early: St Kilda, Half Moon Bay, Williamstown or Sandringham for calm water and space to spread out.
• Claim a shady patch at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Carlton Gardens or Edinburgh Gardens for a Christmas picnic.
• Go for a sunrise or early-morning walk along Brighton foreshore, the Tan or Albert Park Lake.
• Set up backyard cricket before the UV hits peak chaos mode.
• If you’re hosting, run a DIY cool zone: kiddie pools, misters, cold towels and an Esky that never closes.

If It’s Cool Or Wet:

With most venues closed, it’s all about cosy, creative and low-key fun.

• Host a long, leisurely indoor Christmas lunch: perfect for board games, puzzles and card tournaments.
• Drive a scenic route: Dandenong Ranges, Black Rock coastline or the Westgate Bridge lookout for dramatic weather views.
• Take a sheltered walk through Fitzroy Gardens, the Yarra River under tree cover, or Merri Creek’s protected stretches.
• Build a DIY movie marathon: Christmas classics, new releases, or whatever the group can agree on in under 45 minutes.
• Lean into the cool change with hot chocolates, mulled wine or a cheese board that won’t melt.
• Spend the afternoon doing low-key crafts with kids: paper snowflakes, gingerbread decorating, ornaments for next year.
• If the rain clears, head out for a golden-hour stroll at your nearest park, pier or coastal lookout.

Melbourne will do what Melbourne does: serve up a mix of summer sparkle, moody skies and surprise cool changes just to keep things interesting. But with a little planning (and maybe an emergency jacket), you’ll be ready for whatever December 25 throws your way. Keep an eye on updated BOM and WeatherZone forecasts as Christmas approaches, and build a flexible day that works rain, shine or somewhere weirdly in between. It's all part of the very Melbourne Christmas charm.

Looking for more? Check out:

• Melbourne Summer Weather 2025-26: Forecast, Tips And What To Expect
• Say Cheese! The Best Places to Get Your Christmas Photos In Melbourne
• The Ultimate Local Guide To Christmas In Melbourne

Main image credit: Visit Melbourne | Website