Melbourne Summer Weather 2025-26: Forecast, Tips And What To Expect

Summer in Melbourne is coming in hot (literally). The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) latest forecast is pointing to another warm, dry season ahead, with long sun-soaked days, balmy nights, and just enough of those signature four-seasons-in-a-day moments to keep you on your toes.

Whether you’re planning beach hangs, rooftop drinks, or spontaneous laneway escapes, here’s everything you need to know (and pack) to survive (and thrive) through Melbourne’s summer 2025–26.

What’s The Forecast Looking Like This Summer? 

It’s official: Melbourne’s heading for another warm one. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, Victoria’s temperatures are trending higher than average for the 2025–26 summer, with daytime highs likely to sit around the 28–30°C mark and some 35°C+ heat spikes in the mix. 

Across Victoria, the most recent summer (2024–25) clocked a mean maximum temperature of 28.7°C, about 2°C above the long-term average, and a mean minimum of 14.2°C (that’s 1.5°C warmer than usual). Overall, the state averaged 21.5°C across summer, roughly 1.8°C higher than historical norms. 

Rainfall? A bit on the lean side. Victoria’s seasonal total was around 92.6mm, sitting 22% below average, and much of the state’s west and north stayed drier than normal. Melbourne itself saw rainfall fluctuate, some suburbs received just over half their usual totals, while others hit around 110% depending on where those pop-up storms landed.

The BoM’s summer outlook also points to a 60–80% chance of above-average daytime temperatures across Victoria, alongside warmer-than-average overnight lows meaning sultry nights are sticking around. "Because we are seeing increased chances of it being unusually warm for both overnight and daytime temperatures, there’s an increased chance of extreme heat," said BoM senior climatologist Felicity Gamble.

So yes, the city’s reputation for unpredictable weather still stands but this summer, expect more warm days, longer dry spells, and the occasional cool southerly change swooping in to save your rooftop session.

Image credit: Naked for Satan rooftop bar | Visit Victoria website

Ideal Days vs Quieter Weather Windows

Melbourne’s summer social life runs full throttle—outdoor gigs, rooftop brunches, and sunset swims are all back in rotation. For the best weather window, aim for late mornings to early afternoons when the skies are clear and the breeze is light.

Heading to the beach? St Kilda, Elwood, or Brighton are golden between 4pm and 7pm, when the sun softens, the onshore breeze kicks in, and crowds start to thin. For travellers chasing crowd-free vibes, midweek mornings deliver that local calm—perfect for cafe hopping, park picnics or a stroll along the Yarra before the mercury climbs.

And when Melbourne flips the switch (because it will), make a dash for Plan B: the National Gallery of Victoria, ACMI, or any of the city’s hidden laneway wine bars. Summer showers are often short, so you can usually duck inside for a cocktail and re-emerge an hour later into fresh, cool air.

How To Dress, Pack And Plan Ahead

If Melbourne had a dress code, it would be "layered with optimism." Summer here can throw you 33°C and sunny one minute, then a breezy 22°C drizzle the next. Pack smart and flexible. 

Essentials 

• Light layers: breathable fabrics like linen and cotton for daytime, plus a thin jacket for cool changes.
• Sun protection: broad-brim hat, SPF 30+ sunscreen, and sunnies (the UV index often hits very high).
• Rain prep: a small umbrella or light waterproof jacket for sudden showers.
• Hydration: a reusable water bottle is a must, especially on heatwave days. 

Planning Tips 

• Morning = activity time: get in your beach swim, market stroll or brunch before 3pm. 
• Afternoon = shade time: seek out laneway cafes or riverside bars once the UV peaks.
• Evening = magic hour: late afternoon and sunset are prime times for rooftop bars and coastal views.

For travellers, early summer (October–November) brings milder, more changeable weather and fewer crowds. From mid-November through February, expect the full summer experience—28–30°C days, balmy evenings, and the occasional 40°C scorcher.

Why It Matters For Your Melbourne Summer

Last summer saw Melbourne’s mean maximums up by 1.2–2.6°C, with the city’s hottest day hitting 42.3°C on January 27 at Point Cook RAAF Base, so it’s safe to say rooftop ice-cold spritzes are going to be in demand. Meanwhile, BoM’s latest data shows sea surface temperatures around southern Australia are running warmer than average, fuelling hotter days and the chance of sudden storm bursts.

So, what’s the play? Start your days early, make friends with the shade, and keep your plans fluid. Melbourne will give you sunshine, heat and the occasional drama and that’s exactly what makes it magic.

Insider tip: Keep an eye on the BoM’s three-day forecast before big outdoor plans. In this city, "expect the unexpected" isn’t a warning, it’s a lifestyle.

Looking for more? Check out:

• Melbourne’s Best Bars For A Boozy Good Time In 2025
• The Best Dog Beaches In Melbourne & Victoria For 2025
• 15 Of The Best Walks In Melbourne And Victoria You Need To Take

Main image credit: Visit Victoria | Website