Australia’s First High-Speed Rail Line Could Cost Taxpayers $90 Billion

Australia’s long-promised high-speed rail dream has taken a sharp turn, with new analysis revealing a Sydney-to-Newcastle line could cost taxpayers up to $90 billion—far exceeding earlier projections and positioning it as the most expensive single infrastructure project ever funded federally.

The updated figure comes as the business case for the 191-kilometre corridor prepares for release, with the federal government signalling an announcement is imminent. Here's everything you need to know about the proposal. 

How Much Will The New High-Speed Rail Cost?

Fresh analysis by the High Speed Rail Authority estimates the total cost of the Sydney–Newcastle high-speed rail line at between $70 billion and $90 billion. That figure significantly eclipses earlier state-level estimates, including a previous projection of $32 billion for a fast train between Sydney and the Central Coast.

If delivered at the upper range, the project would become the most expensive infrastructure investment ever undertaken by the Commonwealth. 

How Fast Would The Sydney–Newcastle High-Speed Train Be?

The proposed line would allow trains to travel at speeds of up to 320km/h, cutting the current 2.5-hour journey between Sydney and Newcastle to around one hour.

Each train could carry up to 520 passengers and stretch 200 metres in length.

The High Speed Rail Authority argues the corridor is already Australia’s busiest regional rail link, recording more than 15 million passenger movements annually and expected to reach capacity by the early 2040s.

Where Would The High-Speed Rail Line Run?

Geotechnical investigations have mapped a preferred route between Sydney and Newcastle, with significant engineering complexity.

Of the 191 kilometres:

• Around 115 kilometres would run through tunnels
• 41 kilometres would be surface track
• 38 kilometres would be constructed as bridges and viaducts

The scale of tunnelling alone contributes heavily to the project’s escalating cost.

Who Will Pay For The Sydney–Newcastle Fast Train?

The federal government is expected to shoulder most—if not all—of the funding burden.

NSW Premier Chris Minns has indicated the state is not prepared to commit funding at this stage, citing existing infrastructure pressures and a $30 billion annual spend on public works.

NSW’s metro pipeline alone is forecast to exceed $71 billion, while the state’s gross debt is projected to reach $177 billion this year.

Global financial bodies have also flagged concerns about cost blowouts tied to major infrastructure builds, warning rising construction costs could place further strain on state budgets.

When Would High-Speed Rail Between Sydney And Newcastle Be Built?

The project would be delivered in stages over more than a decade.

Current plans suggest:

• Construction between Newcastle and the Central Coast could begin next year, spanning 12 years
• Extension to the Sydney CBD could follow by 2039
• Further expansion to Parramatta and Western Sydney Airport by 2042

If realised, it would mark Australia’s first operational high-speed rail line—an ambition debated for decades but never advanced to this stage of planning.

Why Is High-Speed Rail Being Proposed?

Supporters argue the enormous upfront cost would be offset by long-term economic development, particularly in Newcastle and the Central Coast, where housing and land remain significantly cheaper than Sydney.

The Sydney–Newcastle corridor sits within the broader east coast population spine, with advocates suggesting high-speed rail could reshape commuting patterns, housing markets and regional growth.

But with a potential $90 billion price tag now on the table, the question is no longer just whether high-speed rail makes sense for Australia—it’s whether taxpayers are willing to fund it.

Image credit: Transport NSW | Instagram