What A Rare Super El Niño Would Mean For Sydney In 2026

26th Mar 2026

Written by:

Eloise Luke
Contributor | Urban List

This article is updated regularly as new information comes in.

Talk of a potential "super El Niño" is starting to circulate but what would this actually mean for Sydney?

Based on early signals flagged by Weatherzone, here's what would physically change in the weather, and when you'd feel it.

If El Niño develops in 2026, Sydney would likely see less rain from winter onwards (June to November). That means, fewer grey, drizzly stretches and mroe clear, dry days through winter and spring. At the same time, temperatures apparently tend to shift up, so you're looking at warmer days in late winter and spring, followed by a hotter start to summer, especially in Western Sydney.

It also raises the risk of bushfires around Sydney's edges, so the Blue Mountains, Hawkesbury and southern bushland. El Niño years are typically linked to higher fire danger across southeast Australia, which can also mean more smoke haze drifting into the city.

Most importantly, this isn't a guarantee of extreme conditions to come. Weatherzone notes there's still uncertaintity this far out, and not every El Niño becomes severe. But we still think it's worth keeping across, especially for Sydneysiders who really plan their weekends and getaways in the build up to summer.

We'll keep you updated as more information unfolds.

Updated Friday 13 March, 2026

If Sydney has felt unusually sticky lately, you’re not imagining it. The city is currently experiencing an extended spell of abnormally humid weather, with moisture levels in the air pushing conditions well beyond what Sydneysiders typically expect in early autumn—and our hair is not coping well.

Recent weather data shows that humidity levels have rivalled those seen in Queensland’s southern tropics during the wet season, making even moderate temperatures feel several degrees warmer.

While Sydney’s average temperatures this March have been warm, the real reason it feels so uncomfortable comes down to the amount of moisture sitting in the air.

Why Sydney Feels So Muggy Right Now

One of the key indicators of atmospheric moisture is dew point temperature, which measures how much water vapour is in the air.

So far this March, Sydney’s average dew point has been around 20°C, roughly four degrees higher than the long-term average for the month. According to meteorologists, dew points above 18°C begin to feel oppressive, while anything above 20°C is considered muggy and uncomfortable.

When that level of moisture combines with warm air and limited wind, the “apparent temperature”— how hot it actually feels to humans—can climb significantly higher than the thermometer reading.

The Tasman Sea Is Playing A Big Role

A major contributor to the city’s sticky conditions is the Tasman Sea, which is currently sitting around three degrees warmer than average off the NSW coast.

Warmer ocean temperatures cause more evaporation, meaning additional moisture is pumped into the atmosphere. When Sydney receives onshore winds, that moisture is carried directly over the city, increasing humidity levels.

Weather patterns in recent weeks have also favoured northerly winds, which transport warm, moisture-laden air from further north.

This combination (tropical air from the north and extra evaporation from the Tasman Sea) has created the perfect conditions for Sydney’s recent run of muggy weather.

Relief Is On The Way (But It May Not Last)

A southerly change moving through NSW should bring some short-term relief, lowering humidity levels and making conditions feel noticeably more comfortable.

However, forecasters say the warmer-than-average Tasman Sea could keep humidity elevated well into autumn, meaning Sydney may continue to see more of these sticky spells in the coming weeks.

As ocean temperatures remain high and weather patterns shift, meteorologists say these kinds of humid periods are becoming more common along Australia’s east coast.

With that in mind, you mind want to find some respite from the mugginess this week with the below: