El Niño Or La Niña? Here’s What’s In Store For Sydney This Summer

Summer 2024 was marked by dry heat and dust, while the year before had what felt like endless rain. After a very wet winter in Sydney, the question on everyone’s minds is the same: will it be El Niño or La Niña visiting Sydney this summer? 

First of all, what does any of this mean? According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, paired with changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. Essentially, colder days, higher rainfall, and the need to pack a poncho for your summer festivals (see-through, of course, so you can still throw a fit underneath). 

Image credit: Lost Paradise | Instagram

El Niño, unsurprisingly, is doing pretty much the exact opposite. Warmer sea temps mean warmer days, and reduced rainfall—which also leads to drier conditions and increased fire risk. You’ll be swapping ponchos for headscarves (or washing the dust out of your hair for a month).

Here at Urban List, we certainly aren’t calling ourselves weather professionals, so what do the real experts have to say? According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), long-range predictions are setting expectations for above-average rainfall in the East (sorry, Sydney, that means you). Yet, we are also seeing forecasts for warmer than average days and nights, around a 70-80% chance of above median minimum temperatures across NSW. This may seem contradictory, but it leads to a promising outcome.

Image credit: Destination NSW | Instagram

The Bureau’s model predicts a neutral ENSO (in layman’s terms, neither El Niño nor La Niña) until at least January. According to them, there’s a new weather event on our horizon: a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Warmer waters will concentrate near Australia, leading to above-average winter-spring rainfall levels—and you don’t need to be an expert to validate that claim. Yes, rainfall levels are expected to be high, but unlike La Niña (which normally lasts about 9 months), the lifespan of an IOD event is shorter. They typically develop in the winter months, peak across spring, then decline again by early summer. 

While it’s certainly still too early to predict the exact conditions headed to Sydney this summer, and not all events are the same, it does look like we are heading for somewhat of a middle ground at the end of the year. Our advice? Take each day as it comes, and try to enjoy the rain while it’s here—we aren’t running out of weather smalltalk just yet. 

Main image credit: Bureau of Meteorology | Instagram